Drewry predicts that in 2019 there will be a slowdown in global demand for container handling in ports from 4.7% to just over 4%.
However, 4% will be a very significant growth indicator, which will ensure the expansion of the market by more than 30 million TEU.
On the other hand, according to Drewry, the forecast is quite conditional, since it is still not clear how the UK will leave the EU, and how the trade conflict between China and the US will develop.
At the same time, in 2019, an increase in the capacity of the global port industry is projected at 25 million TEU, which will be achieved by investments of approximately $ 7.5 billion. It is assumed that operators will continue to be very cautious to invest in capacity expansion due to lower profitability of operations, and especially in new capacity construction projects. In spite of this, in order to expand control over the supply chain, to diversify sources of income and to work more closely with direct cargo owners, terminal and port operators will continue to develop their activities outside ports. Drewry notes that the largest carriers are on the same path.
Summarizing his forecast, the analyst writes that, despite the problems, the global container industry will remain a stable, profitable business. The industry’s turnover in 2019 will exceed 800 million TEU, which according to calculations generates EBITDA operating income of more than $ 25 billion.