The next year in St. Petersburg plans to be a record for the last 6 years in terms of the dynamics of commissioning industrial and warehouse facilities. Declared 337 thousand square meters. m. Given the declared takeover, this will lead to an increase in the level of vacant space in the market. however, most buyers believe that the cost of sales will remain unchanged, and developers note that it will grow. With regard to rent, the market is more unanimous and tends to keep rates at the current level. The brokerage company Bright Rich estimates the triple net rate for 2020 at 4.2 thousand rubles. If market expectations are imposed on this, then a corridor of 4.1–4.3 thousand rubles can be forecasted. for 1 square. m
Discussing the dynamics of the level of vacancy in the market, half of the tenants believe that it will remain unchanged, and only 37% indicate that it will grow. Developers are more optimistic: 73% spoke about the likelihood of growth. Bright Rich partner Viktor Zaglumin noted that such a gap may be due to the fact that not all objects are currently published information, so tenants do not yet have the necessary information for an objective assessment.
According to Bright Rich customers, the dynamics of absorption of warehouse space through leases in 2020 will increase, as the vast majority of tenant companies predict. With regard to the purchase and sale market, the picture is similar: 37% of buyers and 53% of sellers are sure that segment growth will be observed.
In St. Petersburg, already in 2019, a significant gap is observed from last year. If in 2018, 252 thousand square meters were absorbed. m, then by the end of 2019 we can expect 415 thousand square meters. m, if we take into account transactions that have already been completed, but have not been publicly announced or are in the final stage of signing. Speaking of 2020, Bright Rich gives a pessimistic absorption forecast of 240 thousand square meters. m, however, if mathematically approximating the opinion of market players, there is a chance of reaching 340 thousand square meters. At the same time, the volume of net absorption from 87 thousand in 2019 will grow to 136 thousand square meters. m in 2020. An abnormal surge in 2019 V. Zaglumin associates with the implementation of pent-up demand in the sales segment and the relocation of current tenants.
Thus, a record-high commissioning of high-quality industrial warehouse facilities for St. Petersburg is expected, return of general absorption to average values and a significant increase in net absorption, a slight increase in vacant space and rental rates.
In the first half of 2019, five new facilities (94.7 thousand sq. M.) Were introduced to the market of high-quality industrial and warehouse space in St. Petersburg. This is 6 times more than in the same period last year. Until the end of the year, the developers also plan to commission five more complexes with a total area of 57,910 square meters. m. The total volume of leases and sales of industrial and warehouse real estate amounted to almost 300 thousand square meters. m, which is 71% higher than in 2018. The drivers of the market were food retail companies – 27% of the total number of transactions. The most popular is the rental of small areas (up to 2.5 thousand sq. M – 55% of transactions). The south has traditionally been the leading geographic destination (41% of transactions). It accounts for the largest volume of vacant space – 89 580 square meters. m. The total vacancy of the area today is 165 070 square meters. m